Sunday, November 11, 2007

Emergency and other funny things....

The central basis of any democracy is it's Constitution. All countries have one (the UK has an unwritten one). Most, actually use their constitution while others keep it locked away just in case the general population somehow manage to read it and ask for it's implementation.

Our neighbouring state of Pakistan is a prime example. Their constitution has been re-written atleast thrice since 1947 - each time - to suit the people in power. It appears that they misheard Abe Lincoln's statement to mean "People, of the Government, by the Government, for the Government"

Emergencies are nothing new. They are means of bringing a nation back on track by temporarily suspending the constitution, and giving powers to the state enforcement mechanisms (police, army etc) Some times, they are justified, but most of the times, they aren't.

India was plunged into an Emergency by Mrs Gandhi when her political position became a bit unstable in 1977. Musharraf has invoked the Emergency clause twice. Once in 1999 when he staged a coup to take over Pakistan, and then, he did it again a few days ago.

The first time he invoked it was to save his skin. Kargil was still fresh, and he was to blame. Nawaz had plans of 'retiring' Musharraf and replacing him with his own man. However, Mush stormed his way into the highest office of the land and exiled Nawaz. He was actually welcomed by everyone back then.

To retain his hold on power, he started supporting the Jehadi elements while telling the West that he was eliminating them. 9/11 changed all that. The US entered Asia with the sole purpose of bombing Afghanistan into the stone-age (or should it be 'out of the stone age' hmmmm) and to eliminate the Taliban and the Al Qaeda.

Pakistan was forced to side with the Americans. That caused a lot of problems. The Taliban were staffed and trained by the Pakistani establishment. Weapons, training, strategies were provided to them by the Pakistani Inter-Services-Intelligence. There was a U-Turn in that relationship almost instantaneously which did not go down well with the Mujahideen (terrorists).

This led to serious problems within Pakistan. Not only had the Mujahideen lost support, but their bank accounts were frozen and the weapon supplies were cut-off. With the Indian Army tightening up the border even more, a lot of Mujahideen were simply sitting 'on the bench' doing nothing.

Then came the Lal Masjid fiasco, and coupled with the American presence and the constant killing of the Taliban by the Pakistani Army, things started going horribly wrong. At the same time, Nawaz and Benazir wanted to come back to rule the country. And the Supreme court wants Musharraf to resign. The MMA and other fundamentalist groups too were unhappy with him and wanted the American forces out and an Islamic Emirate declared.

Faced with a possible jail term or even death, Musharraf did the only thing that would keep him in power and alive (indefinately, if he plays his card right). With the militants baying for his head and Benazir and Nawaz gathering support against him and the Judiciary waiting for it's chance, this declaration is not a massive surprise.

From an Indian perspective, I don't think it makes much of a difference. Mad Abdul has been running amok on the other side of the border for a long time and emergency or not, nothing will change. Pakistanis, in their 60 years of freedom, have not learnt the basic concepts of democracy despite pretending to be one. They have been under Army Rule for than half their existence. Therefore, this emergency is just another tool to ensure that the Army stays in control and the Pakistani people are oppressed just that little bit more.

What remains to be seen is what actions the Pakistani Army will take in their lawless western frontiers. If they impose the American will and try to conquer that area by force, the repurcussions will be felt throughout Pakistan. If they decide to have peace talks with the Taliban, the US will have no choice than to cut off aid. Either way, they're screwed and either way, we don't lose anything.

The outcome of this situation is what is something that is a bit unpredictable. Unlike the last time, the Pakistani people are against the Emergency and Musharraf is facing a rebellion. India will, thankfully, be unaffected by this current situation, and in a way, the longer it lasts, the better it will be for us. The only reason why the rest of the world is worried is because of the Pakistani nuclear weapons !!

However, until this emergency is lifted, one thing is for certain, we won't need Bollywood to provide us with entertainment - all we'll have to do is look across the border. We'll get to see Action, Comedy, Tragedy, Politics and with any luck, Mush running around the Bush while it's raining (did I mention a white uniform)

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