The 123 Nuclear Agreement

The N Deal :

A lot has been made about the energy deal recently agreed between India and the USA. Historically, this deal marks a watershed in Indo-US relations. We seem to have finally stepped out of the shadow of the cold war and, without foregoing old allies, we are forging new alliances. In 1974, when the Buddha smiled, the Americans and everyone else simply stopped providing us with technology forcing us to develop a of technologies in-house. While that was an opportunity to show the world that we Indians could do anything, now is the time when we learn from others and incorporate technology rather than trying to build everything ourselves.

This deal, simply put, will provide India with fuel, techonology, assistance, parts and spare parts to set up many more nuclear reactors for peaceful purposes - i.e. for generation of electricity. We are a rapidly growing economy. We need as much energy as we can get. On average, a nuclear reactor needs anywhere from 10 to 15 years from conception on paper to the megawatts flowing out to your TVs, AirCons and electric cars ( yeah right ). The electricity situation in India is dire - with power cuts being routine in all cities and villages across India. We need power. That's the bottom line. We've needed it for a long time, but we need it now more than ever. With an ever increasing urban population and a growing industry for a growing population, we need electricity like the old TV advert where the growing boy needed Complan !!

So where's the problem?

This deal was negotiated by the Congress Government negotiators in the US without the Parliament getting the complete details. The full text of the deal with the small print has not yet been published and even the Parliament is not privy to it. Indian democracy does not demand Parliamentary approval to a deal which has been agreed by the Cabinet. While this may not necessarily mean that the deal is flawed, it does raise questions. Why is the Government hiding the full text. There is no money involved, so there has been no corruption. There has also been no agreements to scrap the Indian nuclear program. Moreover, the previous track record of the Congress governments and foreign deals is poor as best. Bofors and the subsequent attempts at blocking access by investigators to the Gandhi family are still current affairs !!

Dealings with the USA are also not in the national interest of ANY country. The Americans have a nasty habit of tightening the screws when it suits them. During Kargil, half the Army's fleet of Sea King Helicopters were grounded because our American friends simply refused to provide us with the spares we so desperately needed to keep them flying. The way the Americans used the Afghans during the Soviet invasion and then simply dropped them has led to half the problems we face with terrorism today.

However, the biggest problem with the deal is Communist Party of India. The Commies still live in cuckoo land where Lenin bakes the bread which Marx breaks up in equal pieces and hands out to the comrades. America, is the evil demon who jumps in every now and then to steal some of those bread pieces. Of the three reasons I've mentioned, reason three is probably the most damaging to the whole deal.

What's the advantage we get with this deal?

Most of our technology is based on Russian and American technologies from the 1960s. True, we've developed a lot of newer technologies, but due to a lack of proper funding, facilities, RnD, the technology we have is not as efficient as compared to the technology that is being offered to us. Moreover, if the deal goes ahead, we could be looking at as many as 10 more reactors in the next 25 - 30 years, adding a whopping 25000MW of power to the Indian grid. Our existing reactors will need upgrading and or decommissioning, all of which requires newer technologies. We do not have a good source of yellowcake in the country. The NSG (Nuclear Suppliers Group) is in a good position to provide us with virtually unlimited fuel. Australia alone can provide us with all the fuel we need for a hundred years (and then some).

What are the objections?

The most common argument given by the CPI and the Opposition Parties is that we are losing our right to test and our nuclear weapons are in danger. In today's world, testing a nuclear weapon is not the smartest of all things anyway. Apart from unequivocal global condemnation, we might find our export markets restricted. If our economy has to succeed, we need our markets to increase not to decrease. That reason alone is good enough not to test. Moreover, it's a fact that we know how to build bombs and we've tested enough of them to get all the answers we need. After all, a nuclear weapon isn't a surgical scalpel which needs to be precise and constantly sharpened. A nuke is like tossing a brick in a calm pond. Wherever it lands, the splash and the generated wave will cover the entire pond. We don't need to test our weapons any more. We have them, we know how to make them, we know how to use them, and we've already told everyone who cares to listen that we won't the first to use ours in any conflict.

So, now that we've got the testing covered, the second argument is about placing our reactors under foreign control. This argument is sheer nonsense. Under the terms of this argument, we have a choice to mark our reactors as civil or military. The civilian reactors will come under IAEA (Intl Atomic Energy Agency) safeguards and will be provided with fuel by the NSG, which will be monitored and cannot be diverted for weaponisation. I personally don't see a problem with that, because the alternate has simply not been put down in print. The reactors marked Military will not be under any safeguards and will not be provided with any foreign nuclear fuel. What does this mean - it means that we can use the total ouput of our mines in Jaduguda for the sole purpose of weaponisation. Based on our current capability, this might translate into 20 - 30 warheads a year (as opposed to a couple of warheads we make a year now). This deal is a blessing in disguise for us. Not only will we get the best of technology, but we are also free to use our ore to make as many christmas presents for the Pakistanis as we want to - and we can transfer as much trained manpower as we want from the safeguarded reactors to work on the un-safeguarded reactors.

The other objection is the NPT clauses. While India is not a signatory to the NPT (Non Proliferation Treaty), unlike some of the members, India has never transferred nuclear materials or technology to any country. The other treaties being bandied about are the CTBT (Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty) and the FMCT (Fissile Material Cutoff Treaty). The Americans themselves have not signed the treaties in question, and neither have any of the big boys, so expecting us to sign them while they make as much fissile material as they want is not exactly something they can push us to do. We've voluntarily imposed a moratorium on testing anyway, so the CTBT is being fulfilled by us without the need to sign it.

The problem with the deal lies with two fundamental flaws with Indian democracy. The first problem is the Opposition parties - whose sole job is to oppose anything the Government wants to do. This is normally an exercise in futility, but this time, they might just succeed. The second problem is that in order to form a Government, a political party has to show the support of more than half the house (as opposed to the British democracy where the largest party forms the Government). This flaw has led to the Congress Party getting in bed with the Communists. If the CPI had their way, we would be allied with the Chinese. It's quite amusing how the CPI failed to react when the Chinese ambassador openly claimed that Arunachal was still disputed territory. This, to me, is nothing short of sedition. Just for that alone, the CPI members should have been imprisoned and tried for treason. However, they are in power. In their warped idea of the world, America is the enemy - even though half the kids of the CPI leaders are either working or studying in the US. The Communists rule 2 states in India - West Bengal and Kerala. Development in both states is patchy at best. Both states are ruled by Unions and major industries have moved out to neighbouring states a long time ago.

Now, are we to trust the CPI as the champions of Indian sovreignity? Or we to trust the opposition - the BJP, who started the process that led to this deal in the first place. It just appears that they are sore that this deal was not finalised on their watch. Funnier yet, are the likes of Jayalalitha, Mayawati and Karunanidhi who are insulting the intelligence of the average Indian village idiot by claiming to understand the deal and either providing support or condemning it.

There are many reasons to operationalise this agreement. We need energy now. The more we delay actioning this treaty the more delays we will face in the future when we can't grow because we won't have enough energy. Pakistan and China are vehemently opposing this treaty. That is reason alone to finalise the pact. The annoying factor this treaty has upon the Chinese and Pakistanis is a great reason to sign this. What I found amusing was the Pakistani Minister's comments yesterday where she said - "If India tests, so will we". I gave up smoking a few months ago, but I would honestly love to smoke whatever she's been smoking. Someone should've prompted her that the deal being signed was 'Nuclear energy for peaceful use' and NOT 'Nuclear Energy for India to make Pakistan glow"

The effort put in the Indian diasporia, the new found friendship with the Americans and way we are viewed in the world will change if we say no to this deal after 2 years of negotiations (and many more behind closed doors). This deal has cemented our position on the world stage as a responsible nation. The condemnation we faced after the nuclear tests in 1998 and the subsequent economic crisis should have taught us atleast one thing. Do not hesitate to accept any help from anyone, but retain independence on everything.

This deal provides us with just that - technology with riders.

Riders :

The US Hyde act specifically states that in case of a nuclear test carried out by us, we would be obliged (forced) to return everything provided to us under the terms of this agreement - technology, fuel - processed and unprocessed, the reactors themselves and any equipment provided to us. Moreover, there are certain sections in this act which are India specific like sections 103 and 104 (d)(2). The Bush administration has stated that this act is more 'advisory' in nature rather than a firm act. They are willing to overlook the India specific clauses. This act is being used by the parties in the Parliament to try and convince the rest of the country that we've given up our right to test and that we are giving up our weapons. While the act has been passed in the American Congress and is important to them, what needs to be understood that in this day and age, no nation can afford to behave in a manner that is not acceptable to the rest of the world (excluding countries like North Korea, China, Iran and the US) So if we agree to the simple premise that India will not be testing in the near future, the Hyde act is just what it is - an obscure piece of paper filed away in the Library of Congress, Washington DC, USA.

Conclusion :

While experience has shown the world that the Americans cannot be trusted, it has also shown that Indians have the capability to rise under any circumstances. With the economy and the market growing by leaps and bounds, the whole world wants a piece of the Indian pie. Governments in India have been quick to allow access to multinationals - so it is vital that we have delusional parties like the CPI around just to ensure that while the gates to India stay open, they also have a spring loaded mechanism that the gates can close quickly.

India has been preaching the world to give up it's nuclear weapons, so maybe it's actually time for us to do what we preach. Indian nuclear weapons, if used, will only be used against Pakistan. Even then, the trade winds will ensure that the radioactive fallout will destroy vast areas of arable land in Punjab, Haryana and UP. These weapons are a deterrent at best. Why bother spending billions on something that will never be used? So maybe it is time to tell the world that this land of Gandhi and Buddha does not need nuclear weapons to announce it's place in the world.

However, the Indian voter has been taken for a ride yet again by our Parliamentarians who care more about their fortunes than what is important for the nation. The Congress Party is hiding certain facts, the Communists are well, just being Communists, the Opposition is opposing and no one is listening to the scientists - who are all pro-deal. The Chinese and the Pakistanis are opposing it. Ergo, it must be good for us.

Let's hope the deal is signed, approved and operationalised so that the next generation of Indians can watch Baywatch on TV and not have to miss out on skimpily clad Pamela Anderson jogging on the beach err saving lives? just because there was a scheduled outage of electricity !!